High Speed 2 (HS2), the ambitious rail project designed to link London and the North of England, is facing substantial delays, with only 60% of its physical structures currently completed. This figure falls significantly short of the initial timeline, which projected that the structures should have been “largely completed” by now, according to testimony from HS2 Ltd chief executive, Mark Wild, before Members of Parliament.
Scale of Delay
Mr. Wild’s update highlights the considerable lag in the project’s physical progress. The 60% completion rate for structures represents a major deviation from the original expectations. Phase One of the project, connecting London and Birmingham, was originally slated to open by the end of 2026. However, this target was revised to a window between 2029 and 2033. Further complicating the timeline, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander stated only last month that there is currently “no route” to meeting even this updated timeframe, casting doubt on the project’s revised opening date.
Root Causes Identified
During his appearance before MPs, Mr. Wild attributed the significant delays and resulting cost overruns to a confluence of factors. A critical issue cited was the decision to commence construction activities before critical preliminary steps were fully completed. This included starting work prior to finalising detailed designs and before securing necessary local planning consents, creating inefficiencies and unforeseen challenges later in the process. He noted that the government’s ‘Notice to proceed’, which formally authorised the start of major construction works, was granted in April 2020.
Mr. Wild also pointed to flaws in the initial contractual arrangements for the project, which he stated placed all risk on the government, limiting the ability to effectively manage and incentivise contractor performance. He candidly acknowledged failings by HS2 Ltd itself in managing certain aspects of the scheme. External shocks have also played a role, with Mr. Wild citing the widespread disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the inflationary pressures on materials and labour triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as contributing factors to the project’s financial and scheduling woes.
Escalating Costs
The project’s costs have ballooned far beyond initial estimates. The original estimated cost for the entire planned network (which included now-scrapped extensions beyond Birmingham) was £37.5 billion in 2013, priced at 2009 values. In stark contrast, HS2 Ltd’s own assessment, as of June last year, indicated that the cost for just the London to Birmingham line (Phase One) could reach as high as £66 billion. This represents a near doubling of the cost for a significantly curtailed version of the original vision, even when adjusting for inflation and scope changes.
Uncertainty on Future Timelines
The candid admission by the Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, that there is presently “no route” to achieving the already revised 2029-2033 target for Phase One underscores the profound uncertainty now surrounding the project’s completion. This latest statement from a senior government figure indicates that further delays appear increasingly likely, potentially pushing the opening of the London-Birmingham line even further into the future.
Broader Implications
The persistent delays and escalating costs of HS2 continue to be a subject of intense public and political scrutiny. The project, one of Europe’s largest infrastructure schemes, faces ongoing challenges in managing its complex construction programme amidst financial constraints and unforeseen external events. The revelations from the HS2 Ltd chief executive provide a clear, albeit concerning, picture of the significant hurdles that remain before the high-speed line can become operational, raising questions about the final cost, timeline, and scope of the railway.
